Why I Keep Forgetting About John Kasich

Stuart Rothenberg October 9, 2015 · 10:47 AM EDT

The Republican contest for president probably will boil down to a fight between a pragmatic conservative, such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and either an uncompromising conservative, such as Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, or an outsider, like Ben Carson.

Most of the GOP hopefuls fit into either of those categories, but Ohio Gov. John R. Kasich doesn’t.

That shouldn’t be surprising. As I observed in a late April column, I expected Kasich, who was not yet in the race at that point, to run as a conservative outsider who would fight for the middle class but also stress the need for his party to be compassionate and caring.

Addressing the question of whether Kasich was in the GOP’s top tier, I suggested he needed to raise money, demonstrate he has the maturity he lacked when he last ran and prove he is able to excite “a broad swath of Republicans in a crowded field” before placing him in the top group of contenders.

As I talk with audiences around the country about the GOP race, I have encountered a number of Republicans who like Kasich and hope he will be on the national ticket. But the Ohio governor has yet to catch the attention of enough Republicans, and his path to victory is no clearer now than it was in the spring.

National polls generally show…

Early Iowa Presidential Polls a Better Predictor Than National Ones

Stuart Rothenberg October 8, 2015 · 11:18 AM EDT

Last month, national polls by CNN/ORC, Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal got plenty of attention, and they certainly helped readers and viewers understand what is going on in the Republican and Democratic presidential contests.

But if history is any guide, early national polls are far less…

Draft Biden Organizer Dismissed Over Past Legal Problems

Nathan L. Gonzales October 7, 2015 · 10:54 AM EDT

Draft Biden PAC is gaining steam and staff in its unaffiliated effort to encourage Vice President Joe Biden to get into the presidential race, but it recently dismissed one of the group’s initial organizers after his past legal problems came to light.

Former congressional aide and campaign…

State Senator Prepares GOP Primary Challenge to Shimkus

Nathan L. Gonzales October 6, 2015 · 2:18 PM EDT

State Sen. Kyle McCarter is poised to launch a primary challenge to GOP Sen. John Shimkus in Illinois’ 15th District later this week, according to GOP sources.

The news shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. McCarter has been openly discussing the possibility with fellow Illinois Republicans since…

Hassan’s Decision Changes Outlook in Two New Hampshire Races

Nathan L. Gonzales October 5, 2015 · 12:02 PM EDT

After months of speculation, Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan announced her bid to challenge GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, setting up what should be one of the most competitive senate races in the country. 

Hassan’s decision is yet another victory for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign…