A Brief Electoral History of Recently Indicted Congressmen

Nathan L. Gonzales July 31, 2015 · 10:32 AM EDT

It might be easy to scoff at Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah of Pennsylvania for talking about his re-election bid on the same day he faced a 29-count indictment on corruption charges, but the most recent members of the House to be indicted held their own at the ballot box, at least initially. The last two members of the House to be indicted won their next election.

After New York Republican Rep. Michael G. Grimm was indicted in 2014, I wrote about how it reminded me of one of my worst mistakes as a political handicapper and how I didn’t want to repeat it. Apparently, I’m a slow learner.

Back in 2006, I assumed that after the FBI found $90,000 cash in Democratic Rep. William Jefferson’s freezer he would lose re-election. That turned out not to be true. He won the runoff election that cycle, was indicted six months later, and still won the 2008 Democratic primary and runoff elections. He lost the general election by less than 3 points.

But even with the Jefferson situation in mind, there was evidence that Grimm’s electoral position was more precarious.

Grimm had narrowly won re-election, 48 percent to 45 percent, two years before in a competitive 11th District anchored by Staten Island, and it appeared that the congressman didn’t have a lot of room for error in his re-election…

More Democratic Losses Could Be on the Horizon

Nathan L. Gonzales July 30, 2015 · 2:00 PM EDT

For Democrats anxious to turn the page from a terrible 2014 cycle, the news might get worse before it gets better.

Last fall, Democrats lost control of the Senate and fell further into the minority in the House, but pinned much of the blame on low turnout in the midterm elections. Party…

Chris Christie’s Conundrum

Stuart Rothenberg July 29, 2015 · 10:03 AM EDT

On first glance, Christie’s bio and profile should make him a top-tier hopeful for the 2016 Republican nomination. But he isn’t — at least not right now. In this case, timing is everything.

A former county freeholder and U.S. attorney finishing his second term as governor in a very blue state,…

2016 Senate Overview: Playing Field Comes Into Focus

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Nathan L. Gonzales July 24, 2015 · 2:30 PM EDT

In the dog days of summer of the off-year, Republicans and Democrats are knee-deep in candidate recruitment, fundraising, and opposition research leading into battle for the Senate in 2016.

With well over a year before Election Day, the Senate playing field is starting to take shape, as the fight…