The Second Biggest Surprise of the Election Season

Nathan L. Gonzales August 24, 2016 · 9:12 AM EDT

Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination is the biggest surprise of the election season, but GOP senators’ success in primaries has to be a close second.

Two years after Pat Roberts, Thad Cochran and Mitch McConnell labored through competitive primaries, four years after Richard Lugar lost his primary in Indiana, and six years after Bob Bennett and Lisa Murkowski lost their primaries, this year’s class of GOP senators have not only survived, but thrived in intra-party contests.

Murkowski avenged her 2010 primary loss to Joe Miller with a 72-15 percent victory in Alaska last week. And she’s not the only one who has done well.

Nineteen GOP senators have been renominated so far this year and none of them fell below 61 percent. They also averaged 86 percent of the vote and a 76-point margin of victory. Even without the nine senators who ran unopposed, senators facing at least one primary challenger averaged 74 percent of the vote and a 54-point victory margin.

Three Republican senators still face primary challengers: Arizona’s John McCain and Florida’s Marco Rubio on Aug. 30 and New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte on Sept. 13. They hope to continue the trend.

Of course, the winning incumbents often overwhelmed inferior and unknown opponents with huge spending…

New Normal Isn’t Friendly to Trump

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 19, 2016 · 3:00 PM EDT

The dust is starting to settle after the conventions, and it looks more like quicksand for Donald J. Trump.

The GOP presidential nominee was in a precarious electoral position before the conventions because of his high unfavorable ratings and penchant for saying controversial things. Four days in…

Trump’s Troubles Loosen GOP Grip on Senate Majority

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 19, 2016 · 2:59 PM EDT

Donald Trump is slipping further behind Hillary Clinton in the presidential race and is now in danger of taking the Republican Senate majority down with him. 

Up until the conventions, most of the vulnerable Republican senators looked poised to withstand Trump losing the presidential election. But…

New Hampshire 1: Guinta Struggles to Reach Rematch

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Simone Pathé August 19, 2016 · 2:58 PM EDT

It’s deja vu again in New Hampshire’s 1st District, where GOP Rep. Frank Guinta is up for re-election and former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is once again hoping to reclaim her old seat. But this year, there’s a twist.

Guinta first has to survive a competitive primary. Trouble with the…

House Democrats Wait for Weight of Trump

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 19, 2016 · 2:57 PM EDT

You won’t hear Democratic strategists utter the “m” word but, deep-down inside, some of them believe the House majority is still within reach.

Right now, there aren’t enough districts in play for Democrats to win the majority and the polling in many of the competitive districts isn’t great for…