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Senate Math Still Favors Democrats

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Nathan L. Gonzales September 2, 2016 · 3:00 PM EDT

Donald Trump continues to struggle in the presidential race and the Republicans’ hold on the Senate is a precarious position. 

Many of the most vulnerable Republican senators are doing everything in their power to stave off a re-election loss, but Trump appears to be digging holes in some states…

After Trump, Do Campaigns Still Matter?

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Stuart Rothenberg September 2, 2016 · 2:59 PM EDT

“If Donald Trump happens to win,” a veteran Republican campaign consultant said to me recently, “It is going to put a whole lot of field operatives out of work.”

Trump, of course, has been running for president virtually without a campaign.

Yes, there is a candidate. And the candidate has…

Pennsylvania Senate: Keystone of a Majority

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Alex Roarty September 2, 2016 · 2:58 PM EDT

Republican Pat Toomey always knew that his re-election run this year would be difficult in a perennial battleground state like Pennsylvania. But he could hardly have imagined the challenge of running alongside a presidential nominee like Donald Trump.

The first-term lawmaker won a seat in the…

House Still Waiting for Its Moment in the Spotlight

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Nathan L. Gonzales September 2, 2016 · 2:57 PM EDT

While the vast majority of the media coverage focuses on the presidential race and any scraps are left for the fight for the Senate, it’s important to not lose sight of the House.

Democrats are still unlikely to gain the 30 seats they need for control, but it’s unwise to completely rule out a…

Clinton Keeps Distinct Edge in Presidential Race

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September 2, 2016 · 2:56 PM EDT

Donald Trump has narrowed Hillary Clinton’s advantage in national polls, but his fundamental disadvantage in the electoral college has not changed. 

The former secretary of state’s margin over the Manhattan real estate mogul has slipped from about 7 points to closer to 5 points since the middle of…

2016 House Ratings (September 2, 2016)

September 2, 2016 · 2:55 PM EDT

The Second Biggest Surprise of the Election Season

Nathan L. Gonzales August 24, 2016 · 9:12 AM EDT

Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination is the biggest surprise of the election season, but GOP senators’ success in primaries has to be a close second.

Two years after Pat Roberts, Thad Cochran and Mitch McConnell labored through competitive primaries, four years after Richard…

New Normal Isn’t Friendly to Trump

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 19, 2016 · 3:00 PM EDT

The dust is starting to settle after the conventions, and it looks more like quicksand for Donald J. Trump.

The GOP presidential nominee was in a precarious electoral position before the conventions because of his high unfavorable ratings and penchant for saying controversial things. Four days in…