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2008 Presidential Battleground Ratings

October 21, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

Total Electoral Votes
(270 needed to win)

Obama - 235 (safe/likely) + 71 (lean) = 306
McCain - 140 (safe/likely) + 23 (lean) = 163
Toss-ups = 69

Toss-Ups


  • Florida (27)
  • Indiana (11)
  • Missouri (11)
  • Nevada (5)
  • North Carolina (15)

Lean McCain


  • Georgia (15)

Powell for Obama: Nothing More than a Real Yawner

Stuart Rothenberg October 20, 2008 · 3:21 PM EDT

With the amount of media coverage that retired General Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama received over the weekend, you might think that it was a game-changer. It wasn’t.

Powell remains an important and widely admired political figure, and he could have had some impact on the 2008…

Should Congressional GOP Throw McCain Under the Bus?

Stuart Rothenberg October 20, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

A dozen years ago this month, with GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole mired far back in the polls, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent millions of dollars on a television ad that urged voters not to give Bill Clinton and “liberal special interests” a “blank check” on Election Day…

2008 Gubernatorial Ratings

October 20, 2008 · 12:03 AM EDT

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. Democrats currently hold 28 governorships compared to 22 for the Republicans. Our current estimate is a Democratic gain of one governorship to a Republican of one governorship.

# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans



New Print Edition: Senate, House, Gubernatorial, Presidential Ratings

October 19, 2008 · 11:41 PM EDT

The October 17, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks (even more frequently as Election Day approaches). Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly…

House rematches may give clue to size of Democratic wave

Stuart Rothenberg October 18, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

WASHINGTON (CNN) — A dozen rematches are a good place to look between now and Election Day to see what kind of year the two parties are having in the fight for the U.S. House of Representatives.

There is no question about whether Democrats will retain control. But it is unclear exactly how many…

Louisiana Senate: NRSC Back In

October 17, 2008 · 2:22 PM EDT

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has reversed an earlier decision to cancel its last two weeks of advertising in Louisiana. Instead, it has purchased TV time next week and will wait to decide whether to buy the final week before Election Day. The decision comes on the heels of GOP…

GOP May Target Mahoney Media Firm in Other Districts

Nathan L. Gonzales October 17, 2008 · 2:05 PM EDT

With Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) embroiled in an alleged sex scandal, Republicans are putting on the full-court press to broaden the scandal to other districts by implicating House Democratic leadership — and, potentially, Mahoney’s former media firm.

According to the initial ABC News report,…

California 3: Lungren Responds to Challenger With Two Polls

Nathan L. Gonzales October 16, 2008 · 11:15 AM EDT

On the heels of his opponent releasing a poll showing a statistically even race, Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Calif.) countered by paying for two polls by separate pollsters, each showing him with a significant lead.

An Oct. 7 survey for the Republican’s campaign, conducted by pollster Val Smith, showed…

Massachusetts Senate: Kerry Visits ‘South Pacific’ for Re-Election Bid

Nathan L. Gonzales October 16, 2008 · 10:15 AM EDT

With Election Day just three weeks away, Sen. John Kerry (D) doesn’t seem the least bit worried about his re-election. The Massachusetts Senator was spotted exiting the Lincoln Center Theater in Manhattan on Saturday night after catching the revival of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s “South Pacific.”