Idaho 1 moved to Lean Democratic, Hawaii 1 moved to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic

May 26, 2010 · 2:12 PM EDT

In Idaho’s 1st District, Republicans nominated state Rep. Raul Labrador in an upset over Iraq War veteran Vaughn Ward, who was part of the NRCC’s Young Guns program. Freshman Democratic Cong. Walt Minnick (D) was already a difficult target because of his record of voting against every significant…

Sean Duffy, Welcome to Your New Real World

Nathan L. Gonzales May 26, 2010 · 12:33 PM EDT

Wisconsin Republican Congressional hopeful Sean Duffy probably now feels like he’s a victim of a classic bait-and-switch. But in this case, it’s Duffy who is a victim of his own success as a candidate.

After running for months against veteran Democratic Rep. David Obey in Wisconsin’s sprawling…

PA15: Difference of Opinion

Nathan L. Gonzales May 25, 2010 · 3:00 PM EDT
There may not be a race this cycle with such a dramatic difference of opinion between the two parties.


Cong. Charlie Dent is a rare Republican who represents a district that both Barack Obama and John Kerry carried in their presidential races. But even with the wind blowing in their…

NV3: Welcome to Paradise

Nathan L. Gonzales May 25, 2010 · 2:59 PM EDT

If you’re a Democratic incumbent who was elected in a competitive district last cycle with less than 50% of the vote, you’re almost guaranteed to be a target this year. Nevada Cong. Dina Titus (D) fits the bill perfectly.

GOP Cong. Jon Porter survived the Democratic wave of 2006, but with less…

DGA-Led Group Targets Kasich with New TV Ad

Nathan L. Gonzales May 24, 2010 · 9:24 PM EDT

There’s still five months to go before Election Day but you wouldn’t know it by the air war taking place in Ohio’s race for governor.

Building a Stronger Ohio, an outside Democratic group led by the Democratic Governors Association, is set to air a television ad this week attacking former Cong.…

Tuesday Showed It’s Wise to Expect Unexpected

May 21, 2010 · 11:33 AM EDT

What a really weird week.

Rep. Mark Souder, a socially conservative Republican from Indiana, admits he had an affair with a staffer and steps down from his seat. Squeaky-clean Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) admits he “misspoke” about his military record but says he won’t…

Is It Time for Democrats to Shove Giannoulias Out?

Stuart Rothenberg May 20, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

The clock is starting to run out on Democrats who would like Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias out of his state’s Senate race in favor of a more electable candidate.

Given the sensitivity of such a scenario, it’s no wonder that Democrats don’t want to be anywhere near a discussion of a…

PA 12 Moved to Lean Democratic

May 19, 2010 · 10:00 AM EDT

Former congressional aide Mark Critz (D) defeated businessman Tim Burns (R) in the extremely competitive special election race in Pennsylvania’s 12th District. Even though Democrats simply held the late-Cong. John Murtha’s seat, the victory is a piece of good news for Democrats in an increasingly…

PA Senate Still a Toss-Up

May 19, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter lost Tuesday’s Democratic primary to Cong. Joe Sestak. Specter’s Pennsylvania seats is now open for the fall but it remains a Toss-Up in our ratings.

We’re also keeping our rating of the Connecticut Senate race as Clear Advantage for the Incumbent Party for…

GOP Still Shy of Races in Play to Win Majority

May 18, 2010 · 3:00 PM EDT

With less than six months until voters go to the polls, almost all of the most vulnerable Senate seats this cycle are in Democratic hands — creating an unexpected wealth of opportunities for the GOP, which just 12 months ago was headed for additional Senate losses.

But the change in the…