Big Five States: Tough and Getting Tougher for McCain

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

A few months ago in this space, I wrote that if you tell me who will win Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and Michigan, I can tell you who will win the White House in November (The Big Five: Picking the States That Will Pick the President, July 17, 2008).

With the campaign of Republican…

California 3: Democratic Poll in California Shows Lungren Is Soft

Nathan L. Gonzales October 12, 2008 · 8:42 PM EDT

Maybe it’s the crummy national environment or maybe it was the topless attack ad, but a new Democratic poll in California’s 3rd district shows that Rep. Dan Lungren (R) may not be safe.

An Oct. 4-6 survey by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates (D) for physician Bill Durston (D) showed…

New Print Edition: Senate, House, Presidential Outlook

October 12, 2008 · 8:28 PM EDT

The October 10, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks (even more frequently as Election Day approaches). Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly…

2008 House Overview (October 10, 2008)

October 10, 2008 · 12:47 PM EDT

The last week to 10 days has been disastrous for GOP House candidates, with voters taking out their anger and fear of the future on Republicans.

While we may be seeing the low point for Republicans, the ongoing economic mess is likely to keep the economy on the front burner, making it difficult…

2008 Senate Overview (October 10, 2008)

October 10, 2008 · 12:40 PM EDT

After a brief post-convention bounce that made Republicans hopeful about their prospects, public and private polling has soured for the GOP. Voters are blaming the nation’s financial crisis on Republicans, causing the candidates’ poll numbers to sink noticeably.

Republican Senate seats in…

For Republicans, Another Blood Bath Looms on Horizon

Stuart Rothenberg October 9, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

I’ve seen this movie before, and I know how it ends. Republican candidates from presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) down to Congressional hopefuls have less than four weeks to figure out how to avert a repeat of 2006. Increasingly, it appears unlikely that they will.

It’s obvious to…

Obama Maintaining Status Quo With White Evangelicals

Nathan L. Gonzales October 8, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

After months of well-publicized outreach to evangelicals, the Democratic Party and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign are struggling to outperform the normal Democratic vote.

A Sept. 4-21 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) survey for Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly showed…

Democratic Senate Candidates Bail on Rescue Bill

Nathan L. Gonzales October 7, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

While Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and the Democratic leadership in the Senate voted in favor of the bailout bill, the party’s top candidates for the Senate are almost unanimously against it.

The bill passed 74-25 in the Senate Wednesday, with the support of Obama (Ill.), Senate…

Wild Cards Create Wild Scenarios in Congressional Races

Stuart Rothenberg October 6, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

While third-party and Independent candidates for president remain largely irrelevant to the battle between Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), three nontraditional candidates in other races are proving to be more important.

In Minnesota, former Sen. Dean…

Two Democrats Earn Top Score From Conservative Group

Nathan L. Gonzales October 3, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

Two socially conservative groups unveiled their vote ratings this week, and a couple of Democrats made the list of House Members with perfect scores during the 110th Congress.

FRC Action and Focus on the Family Action released their Vote Scorecard, rating Members on 17 votes deemed critical to…