Archive

Massachusetts Democrat John Tierney Moved to Lean Republican

by Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2012 · 10:31 PM EDT

Veteran Democratic Rep. John Tierney (D) is up with a good TV spot addressing his family’s legal problems, but it looks like too little, too late. Tierney has cancelled his final weeks of TV, and polls show him trailing challenger Richard Tisei (R), who we have regarded for months as a very…

2012 House Ratings (October 13, 2012)

October 13, 2012 · 10:30 PM EDT

The Race that Never Stops Surprising

by Stuart Rothenberg October 12, 2012 · 1:00 PM EDT

Two weeks ago, Republicans were growing dispirited, even getting desperate.

Presidential nominee Mitt Romney was still on the defensive over his “47 percent” comment, and GOP consultants were worrying about what they acknowledged was some softening of Republican House and Senate poll numbers…

Senate Strategists Look for Presidential Effect (Senate Overview, October 12, 2012)

October 12, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

What a difference a week makes. Just when it appeared that President Obama was gaining an advantage and some key Senate races were slipping away from Republicans, Romney is back and all is not lost in the Republican fight for the majority.


But while Republican strategists insist that the…

House Democrats Need a Game-Changer (House Overview, October 12, 2012)

October 12, 2012 · 12:58 PM EDT

Ten days ago, Republican strategists seemed confident about their party’s ability to hold the House but started showing some signs of nervousness about their ability to withstand a disaster at the top of the ticket. But now, Mitt Romney’s resurgence has them feeling more comfortable -- even giddy…

2012 House Ratings (October 12, 2012)

October 12, 2012 · 12:57 PM EDT

2012 Senate Ratings (October 12, 2012)

October 12, 2012 · 12:56 PM EDT

Why’d Mitt Romney Take So Long to Move to the Middle?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 12, 2012 · 8:30 AM EDT

The surprise about Mitt Romney’s recent move to the middle isn’t that it occurred but that it took so long.

It has been standard political fare for presidential hopefuls to play to the party faithful during the fight for the nomination and then move to the middle in the general election to woo…

Can a Race Be Tight and Yet Not Competitive?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 10, 2012 · 10:01 AM EDT

Each cycle, my goal as a handicapper is to identify Congressional races where the result will mean a partisan takeover, not merely where the outcome will be close.

To some, this may seem like an odd distinction. After all, if an election is close — within a few points — doesn’t that also mean…