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Don’t Neglect the Twitter Effect on Debates

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 1, 2012 · 3:19 PM EDT

Amid all the pregame coverage of the first presidential debate, don’t neglect the Twitter effect. The winner and loser could be decided and the post-game narrative and media coverage could be set before the candidates even leave the stage.

Of course, Twitter launched before the 2008 campaign,…

Republican Path to Senate Majority Narrows (Senate Overview, September 28, 2012)

September 28, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

The Senate playing field looks vastly different than either party had anticipated a year, or even six months ago -- and it’s moved decidedly in Democrats’ favor, in part because of campaign-specific developments and in part because of a general slippage in GOP numbers in states where Obama is…

House Majority Remains Out of Reach for Democrats (House Overview, September 28, 2012)

September 28, 2012 · 1:59 PM EDT

Publicly, Democrats insist that the House is “in play,” touting national polling that shows their party leading by a few points on the generic ballot. While President Obama and Senate Democrats appear to be gaining an advantage, a district-by-district analysis of the House continues to show…

Race for the White House Shifts Toward the President

by Stuart Rothenberg September 28, 2012 · 1:58 PM EDT

We moved six states last week – all of them toward President Obama. Putting Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin into the “Lean Obama” category pushed the president to 278 electoral votes -- eight more than he needs to be re-elected.


Of course, those three states, and five others are still “in play,”…

Gubernatorial Races Take Back Seat to Federal Contests (Gubernatorial Overview, September 28, 2012)

September 28, 2012 · 1:57 PM EDT

Gubernatorial contests are few (just 11 states will elect a governor in November) and remarkably static. Even though some of these races have been going for months, there hasn’t been a lot of fundamental movement.

Open seat contests in Montana and New Hampshire look like two of the closest and…

2012 House Ratings (September 28, 2012)

September 28, 2012 · 1:55 PM EDT

Eight House Incumbents to Watch for Clues

by Stuart Rothenberg September 25, 2012 · 9:47 AM EDT

Looking for clues about November? If so, you might keep your eyes on a handful of House incumbents seeking re-election. Their fate could tell you a great deal about the mood of the voters, the ability of candidates to separate themselves from the top of the ticket and the importance of individual…