Indiana Senate Race Moves Out of Safe

Nathan L. Gonzales March 24, 2015 · 12:32 PM EDT

GOP Sen. Dan Coats’ retirement creates a takeover opportunity in Indiana next year. But Democrats will likely need some breaks to move the race from a potential gain to a top tier contest.

Coats would have started the race as a clear favorite for re-election, but now that he is retiring, his open…

Why Primaries Aren’t All Bad

Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2015 · 10:04 AM EDT

Primaries can be expensive and divisive, but treating them like the plague — as party spokesmen are prone to do early every cycle — distorts electoral reality.

GOP strategists looking to hold the party’s newly attained majority are reveling in the potentially crowded field of Democrats for the…

Illinois 18: Who Will Replace Aaron Schock?

Nathan L. Gonzales March 20, 2015 · 2:30 PM EDT

GOP Rep. Aaron Schock endured weeks of bad headlines about alleged misuse of office and campaign funds, but few observers thought he would resign, at least so soon. 

While media coverage, including The Washington Post and USA Today, shed light on some of Schock’s spending habits, Politico’s story…

Looking for Retirements in All the Wrong Places

Nathan L. Gonzales March 20, 2015 · 2:29 PM EDT

Who’s going to retire? It’s usually one of the first questions at this early stage of the election cycle. The easiest thing to do is take a look at the House, pick out the oldest Members in the room, and put them on a retirement watch list. But it’s time to look for retirements in a different way.

Iowa 1: Freshman in the City

Nathan L. Gonzales March 20, 2015 · 2:28 PM EDT

Republican Rod Blum took over a Democratic open seat last year in a late-breaking race. But even some GOP strategists aren’t quite sure what to make of the Iowa congressman’s first few months in office. The only thing certain is that the 1st District will be a top Democratic takeover target in…

Report Shorts (March 20, 2015) Florida Senate, Maryland Senate, Michigan’s 11th, New Jersey Senate

March 20, 2015 · 2:27 PM EDT

Florida Senate. Democratic National Committee Chairwoman/Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz announced on Tuesday that she will seek re-election and not run for the Senate. Former GOP Governor/2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist also announced he isn’t running for the Senate either.…

So Long, Curtis

Stuart Rothenberg March 19, 2015 · 10:21 AM EDT

I had not spoken with Curtis Gans for the past couple of years, but his death on Sunday, at age 77, brought back a flood of memories.

Curtis and I had two things in common: We were both born in Manhattan and graduated from the Riverdale Country School, a private school in the Riverdale section of…

The Fearsome Foursome: Bush, Paul, Walker, Rubio

Stuart Rothenberg March 18, 2015 · 9:48 AM EDT

A veritable bevy of Republican presidential hopefuls have already hired staff, wooed deep-pocketed contributors and made speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire, proving what we already know: The 2016 nomination preseason is well underway.

Fundraising, organization, the size of the field and the…

Mark Kirk Starts 2016 as an Underdog

Stuart Rothenberg March 12, 2015 · 4:58 PM EDT

Where does Illinois Republican Sen. Mark S. Kirk start in his bid for re-election? It depends on whom you ask.

The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report currently rates the 2016 race as a Tossup, while the Cook Political Report says it is a “Lean Republican” contest. The folks in the statistical…