2016 Senate Overview (July 24, 2015) Kentucky - New Mexico

July 24, 2015 · 2:28 PM EDT

KENTUCKY – Rand Paul (R) elected 2010 (56%). This race is complicated by Paul’s run for president and Kentucky’s state elections this year. 

State law prohibits Paul from running for president and re-election simultaneously, but, next month, the state party is likely to switch from a May…

2016 Senate Overview (July 24, 2015) New York - Wyoming

July 24, 2015 · 2:27 PM EDT

NEW YORK – Chuck Schumer (D) elected 1998 (55%), 2004 (71%), 2010 (66%). It took Schumer a few hours to wrap up the leadership race after Harry Reid announced his retirement. Now, Schumer will run for re-election and be the next Democratic leader in the Senate. The only question is whether he will…

The Politics of Identity Politics

Stuart Rothenberg July 24, 2015 · 9:00 AM EDT

“I’m tired of hyphenated Americans,” complains Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal in “We’re All Americans,” a television spot aired by Believe Again, the super PAC supporting the presidential hopeful’s bid.

“We’re not Indian-Americans or African-Americans or Asian-Americans. We’re all Americans,” he…

Less Hair Could Mean More Votes in Minnesota

Nathan L. Gonzales July 23, 2015 · 9:00 AM EDT

It’s no secret that hair was the source of Samson’s strength. But unlike the Old Testament Nazirite, one potential congressional challenger is hoping less could mean more at the ballot box.

Republican Stewart Mills might have the most talked about hair in politics, second only to Donald Trump.…

Who Will Benefit From the Issues Mix in 2016?

Stuart Rothenberg July 17, 2015 · 8:55 AM EDT

Every election is different, but they almost always come down to one question: What is the election about?

Some elections are about one or both of the candidates (personality, preparedness or accomplishments), while others are merely about “change.” Some are about the economy in general, or jobs…

Bernie Sanders: The Latest Version of Howard Dean

Stuart Rothenberg July 10, 2015 · 9:00 AM EDT

Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders’ poll numbers in New Hampshire have reporters taking notice and progressive Democrats excited: Bernie is surging!

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, if you believe the 73-year-old Vermont independent-turned-Democratic presidential hopeful.

“We are going to win…

The Donald Trump Impact: Not so Inevitable After All

Stuart Rothenberg July 8, 2015 · 8:45 AM EDT

I was surprised by the near unanimity over the weekend about the impact of the Donald Trump comments about Mexican immigrants. Almost every disinterested political observer agreed Trump’s typically over-the-top remarks were certain to hurt GOP prospects in the 2016 presidential election.

I am…

Heck’s Decision Prompts Rating Change in Two Nevada Races

Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2015 · 11:00 AM EDT

Republican Rep. Joe Heck’s decision to run for the Senate is no surprise, but now that he is officially in the race, we are changing our rating in two Nevada races. 

The race for Democratic Sen. Harry Reid’s open seat was already competitive, but Republican chances improve slightly with Heck’s…