Report Shorts (January 23, 2015) California Senate, Iowa Senate, Pennsylvania Senate

January 23, 2015 · 1:31 PM EST

California Senate. Since our last issue, state Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) announced her candidacy in the race to replace retiring-Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). Harris won’t necessarily clear the field, but she is a top contender for the seat. On Thursday wealthy environmental activist Tom Steyer…

Why Hillary Clinton Should Fear Elizabeth Warren

Stuart Rothenberg January 22, 2015 · 12:04 PM EST

If Hillary Rodham Clinton does not run for president in 2016, I’d certainly put my money on Sen. Elizabeth Warren for the Democratic nomination. And I think Warren might be able to give Clinton a run for her money if the freshman senator would challenge the former secretary of State.

No point in…

When a House Member Should Retire

Nathan L. Gonzales January 20, 2015 · 9:00 AM EST

If you’re a member of Congress thinking about retiring, you might want to spend some time listening to Kenny Rogers.

“You gotta know when to hold’em. Know when to fold’em. Know when to walk away. Know when to run,” sang the country music legend in his 1978 song, “The Gambler.”

Last cycle, six GOP…

Why Democrats Can’t Count on Voters Blaming a ‘Republican Congress’

Stuart Rothenberg January 19, 2015 · 9:30 AM EST

Most emails I receive are fundraising propaganda easily ignored, since they aren’t strong on accuracy or thoughtfulness. Instead, they merely seek to incite and anger — and to get people to open their checkbooks to stop the forces of evil.

But the Monday email I received from the Progressive…

Can Democrats Win the House in 2016?

Stuart Rothenberg January 15, 2015 · 8:45 AM EST

Democrats have a better chance of winning control of the House next year than they did at any time in 2014. That’s true even though they now need to gain 30 seats, almost twice what they needed last year.

No, I’m not suggesting Democrats will win the House in 2016. Far from it. Right now, you’d…

Will Improving Economy Help Obama’s Case on Keystone?

Stuart Rothenberg January 12, 2015 · 8:30 AM EST

Events matter in politics and, for a change, they potentially seem to offer a bit of aid and comfort to President Barack Obama in his upcoming battle with the Republican-controlled Congress.

After an impressive across-the-board victory that included a new Senate majority, gains to the party’s…

2016 Senate Overview: Republicans Start on the Defensive

Nathan L. Gonzales January 9, 2015 · 1:34 PM EST

Mitch McConnell is just getting settled into the Senate Majority Leader’s office but Democrats are determined to make sure it’s a short stay.

The GOP rushed to a nine-seat gain and the Senate majority in 2014 by ensuring that the best candidates won competitive primaries, cultivating challengers…

2016 Senate Overview (January 9, 2015) Alabama - Kansas

January 9, 2015 · 1:33 PM EST

ALABAMA – Richard Shelby (R) elected 1986 (50%), 1992 (65%), 1998 (63%), 2004 (68%), 2010 (65%). After five terms and 30 years in the Senate, Shelby might look like a candidate who is ripe for an anti-establishment challenger. But the senator had just short of $18 million in the bank at the end of…

2016 Senate Overview (January 9, 2015) Kentucky - New Mexico

January 9, 2015 · 1:32 PM EST

KENTUCKY – Rand Paul (R) elected 2010 (56%). After knocking off establishment favorite Trey Grayson in the 2010 GOP primary and Democrat Jack Conway in the general election, Paul is up for re-election. But the senator has his eye on a bigger prize: the presidency. 

Under Kentucky law, candidates…