Archive

South Carolina 1: Can Sanford Survive Round Two?

by Jessica Taylor March 20, 2013 · 11:38 AM EDT

The Mark Sanford redemption tour goes on-- and his unlikely political comeback may have even gotten slightly easier after Tuesday’s GOP primary.

The biggest surprise wasn’t that the former governor topped the 16 candidate field, as was widely expected. Instead, in what ended up being a much…

Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment

by Stuart Rothenberg March 20, 2013 · 10:46 AM EDT

Three weeks ago, I discussed whether the House is likely to flip control next year by looking at historical trends and “big picture” questions. Those trends show that the Democrats’ task is a challenging one.

But as the past two cycles have shown, rules are made to be broken. So now, it’s time…

After 2012 Disappointment, Aguilar Readies Re-Run

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 19, 2013 · 9:30 AM EDT

Pete Aguilar was supposed to be a Member of Congress by now, but a serious miscalculation delayed his arrival in Washington.

Aguilar is the 33 year-old mayor of Redlands, a city of almost 70,000 people in southern California’s Inland Empire, located east of Los Angeles. Viewed as a rising star…

GOP Doubles Down on Ryan to Change the Narrative

by Stuart Rothenberg March 15, 2013 · 9:47 AM EDT

In what can only be regarded as an interesting gamble, Wisconsin Rep. Paul D. Ryan and House Republicans this week are proposing an economic agenda oddly similar to the one they have been offering for the past two years.

Among other things, the Ryan budget plan, which intends to balance the…

Recruitment Programs Predict Success…Except When They Don’t

by Jessica Taylor March 14, 2013 · 3:15 PM EDT

In a Wednesday briefing with allied groups and reporters, DCCC Chairman Steve Israel emphasized that his party’s struggle to win the 17 seats begins in 2013, as he outlined how Democrats will secure early commitments from top recruits

It’s a mesage his GOP counterpart, new NRCC Chairman Greg…

Why I Rate Michigan’s Senate Seat As ‘Safe’ for Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg March 14, 2013 · 9:34 AM EDT

Moments after the Rothenberg Political Report reiterated its “Safe” rating of the now open Michigan Senate race, I started hearing complaints. Some of the questions raised were reasonable — so reasonable that I thought I’d use this space to explain why my colleagues and I decided not to move the…

Monthly Party Fundraising Reports Don’t Tell the Whole Story

by Stuart Rothenberg March 13, 2013 · 9:23 AM EDT

Every election cycle the party campaign committees, and many in the national media, make a big deal about party fundraising.

Coverage of the money chase has been exacerbated by the fact that these committees file monthly reports detailing their fundraising, as opposed to quarterly. To wit:

Looking to 2016: Is It Still Either Bush or Rubio?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 12, 2013 · 3:30 PM EDT

As former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush continues to do nothing to end speculation that he might run for president in 2016, his Florida ally, Sen. Marco Rubio, twists in the wind.

Florida and national insiders have been operating under the assumption that the two Florida Republicans would never run…

Can House Democrats Improve on ’12 Recruiting Flops?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 12, 2013 · 9:51 AM EDT

If Democrats are going to have any chance of netting 17 seats during the 2014 midterms — and taking back control of the House — they are going to have to do a much better job in a handful of districts where their recruiting fell far short in 2012. Here are four districts where they have much room…

The Fight for the House: Can Anyone Widen the Narrow Playing Field?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 8, 2013 · 3:00 PM EST

Seventeen -- that’s the number of seats Democrats need to gain to take back the House next year. But netting that many seats will be tough after the party picked up eight last year, especially in a midterm year when a Democrat is in the White House.

Democrats won six of the ten closest House…