Archive

South Carolina 1: Special Situation Requires Two Ratings

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 17, 2013 · 4:22 PM EDT

We’ve said it many times before, special elections are just that, special, but former Gov. Mark Sanford (R) is apparently working overtime to ensure the race in South Carolina’s 1st District is one for the ages.

In spite of his past failings, Sanford successfully navigated the Republican…

The Most Vulnerable House Incumbent(s) of 2014

by Stuart Rothenberg April 17, 2013 · 9:13 AM EDT

Last week, I discussed the most vulnerable senator seeking re-election. It was a tough call, but clearly came down to two Southern Democrats. This week, the question is who is the House’s most vulnerable incumbent, and the answer is much, much easier.

It’s California Republican Gary G. Miller.

Republicans are Terrible at Politics, and the Gosnell Story Proves It

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 15, 2013 · 12:28 PM EDT

The gruesome tale of abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell is a good example of why Republicans are losing the battle for the hearts and minds of American voters.

Gosnell is on trial for the alleged murder of a woman and seven babies in a clinic in which sanitary standards were apparently an…

Cook’s Partisan Voting Index and the Decline of the Swing District

by Stuart Rothenberg April 15, 2013 · 9:30 AM EDT

Every political reporter, campaign professional and political junkie should read Charlie Cook’s most recent National Journal column on the decline of swing congressional districts and the rise of partisanship. (I am certain some credit for the analysis also goes to David Wasserman over at the…

Five Takeaways From the New NBC/WSJ Poll

by Stuart Rothenberg April 14, 2013 · 9:30 AM EDT

A few observations on the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll:

  • This is the first time the president’s job approval numbers have been “upside down” — more people disapproving than approving — since June 2012.
  • After spiking around the election, the right direction/wrong track numbers…

Scott Brown’s Potentially Silly Adventure

by Stuart Rothenberg April 12, 2013 · 9:40 AM EDT

Last week, I wrote a short item about reports that former Massachusetts GOP Sen. Scott P. Brown was not ruling out a run for the Senate in 2014 — in New Hampshire.

I argued that the idea was a bad one and that running in the Granite State after passing on the 2013 Senate special election in…

Pennsylvania Governor: Can Allyson Schwartz Make It to Harrisburg?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 11, 2013 · 9:46 AM EDT

Philadelphia Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz recently confirmed what everyone had already suspected: She is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor in Pennsylvania.

The big question is whether someone from southeastern Pennsylvania can get nominated, let alone win the governorship.…

Most Vulnerable Senator of ‘14? Pryor by a Hair

by Stuart Rothenberg April 10, 2013 · 10:04 AM EDT

Who is the most vulnerable senator seeking re-election next year?

Georgia Republican Saxby Chambliss might have won the distinction because of his vulnerability to a conservative primary challenger, but he has already announced he won’t seek another term.

The same goes for West Virginia…

Why Isn’t Maine’s Susan Collins Vulnerable?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 9, 2013 · 9:31 AM EDT

On one level, Maine’s lone Republican in Congress, Sen. Susan Collins, looks like a defeat waiting to happen.

She is a Republican from a state that went comfortably for Democrat Barack Obama twice. And she is from New England, a part of the country where the GOP is all but extinct in federal…