House News & Analysis

Remembrance of Shutdowns Past

Stuart Rothenberg February 27, 2015 · 9:00 AM EST

Republicans scored big gains in the 2010 and 2014 elections because both of those midterms were about President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. Democrats had successful elections in 2006, 2008 and 2012 primarily because they made those elections about the GOP and George W. Bush, John McCain and…

New York 19: Top-Tier Holding Pattern

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Nathan L. Gonzales February 20, 2015 · 2:29 PM EST

GOP Rep. Chris Gibson shocked the Hudson Valley by announcing his retirement from Congress after just three terms. But even though he is leaving behind a competitive open seat in New York’s 19th District, there hasn’t exactly been a stampede of candidates ready to jump into the race. Why…

Report Shorts (February 20, 2015) California 44, Mississippi 1, Missouri Senate

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February 20, 2015 · 2:26 PM EST

California’s 44th District. Democratic Rep. Janice Hahn is running for an open seat on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors and not seeking re-election in 2016. Her seat is not at risk of falling into Republican hands. State Sen. Isadore Hall (D) is running and has Hahn’s support. 

Other…

Past and Precedent: What Makes This Mississippi Special Election Interesting

Stuart Rothenberg February 19, 2015 · 10:37 AM EST

You might think the best way to understand Mississippi’s upcoming 1st District special election to fill the late Rep. Alan Nunnelee’s seat is to examine the 2008 special election in the same district. After all, that previous special election to fill the seat left open by Roger Wicker’s…

Why Early Senate Polling Is Usually Useless

Stuart Rothenberg February 13, 2015 · 1:20 PM EST

I never pay too much attention to early polls, since snapshots of a race more than 18 months before Election Day can be misleading.

And political parties ought to be careful about crowing too loudly about early polls for fear someone will look too closely into them.

A Feb.…

Why Special Elections Really Matter

Nathan L. Gonzales February 12, 2015 · 9:43 AM EST

Special elections matter, but not for the reasons you might think.

It’s an annual sport in politics: arguing whether special elections serve as bellwethers. But while special elections often poorly portend results around the country, they can produce potential leaders. They’re also excellent predictors of voter behavior inside that…

Democrats Might Need to Lose the White House to Win the House Majority

Nathan L. Gonzales February 9, 2015 · 9:40 AM EST

“It’s going to be awhile,” wrote The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza recently, summarizing Democrats’ chances of obtaining a majority in the House.

But Democrats may not need years to dig out from their minority hole … if they are willing to surrender the White House in 2016.

Cillizza,…

Democrats Gamble With New York Special Election

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Nathan L. Gonzales February 6, 2015 · 1:58 PM EST

Democrats have all but ceded the upcoming special election in New York’s 11th District to Republicans. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee remains determined to challenge for the seat in November 2016 when party operatives expect a boost from presidential year turnout.

But history is not on their side.

When Activists Run for Office

Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2015 · 10:03 AM EST

Spending time, energy and money on campaigns is one thing. But some political activists go a step further, contemplating whether to become a candidate themselves.

California could see two such cases in the next few years, with environmentalist Tom Steyer and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas potentially finding themselves…

Democrats Looking Beyond New York 11 Special Election

Nathan L. Gonzales January 28, 2015 · 10:51 AM EST

The date hasn’t even been set, but Republicans have all but won the special election in New York’s 11th District.

The Staten Island-based district has swung from being a top Democratic target in the midterms all the way across the competitive spectrum to Democrats punting the opportunity to win…