President News & Analysis

The What Ifs of the 2016 GOP Presidential Race

Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2015 · 9:28 AM EDT

If Jeb Bush doesn’t win any of the first four GOP contests — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — does that eliminate him from the Republican race? Or does he have the staying power to survive those losses?

If Texas Sen. Ted Cruz finishes first in the…

The Young and the Restless of 2016

Stuart Rothenberg April 16, 2015 · 12:36 PM EDT

Once upon a time, presidential candidates were expected to have more than passing experience in government, as well as the maturity and wisdom that sometimes come with age. But that has changed, apparently.

Barack Obama was in the United States Senate for only two years before he began his…

Jeb Bush Can’t Be Nominated. Or Can He?

Stuart Rothenberg April 2, 2015 · 11:20 AM EDT

There are plenty of reasons to believe Jeb Bush, the former two-term governor of Florida, son of a former president and brother of another former president, cannot win the 2016 Republican nomination.

The problem for those of us who report on and analyze elections dispassionately is there are also…

It’s Early: Why Pundits Shouldn’t Overreact

Stuart Rothenberg March 26, 2015 · 3:43 PM EDT

The reviews are in after the first game of spring training: Hillary Rodham Clinton struck out. Or at best, she hit a slow roller to second base and was thrown out by a mile.

She’s toast. It’s over for her. She has handled the email controversy like an amateur.…

The Fearsome Foursome: Bush, Paul, Walker, Rubio

Stuart Rothenberg March 18, 2015 · 9:48 AM EDT

A veritable bevy of Republican presidential hopefuls have already hired staff, wooed deep-pocketed contributors and made speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire, proving what we already know: The 2016 nomination preseason is well underway.

Fundraising, organization, the size of the field and the calendar all will play a significant…

What the ‘Big Ten’ Tells Republicans They Need in 2016

Stuart Rothenberg March 11, 2015 · 9:56 AM EDT

We won’t know the 2016 Republican presidential nominee for more than a year, but we already know the 10 states — the electoral “Big Ten” — that will select the next occupant of the White House.

Because of that, we can evaluate the GOP’s general election prospects over the…

Familiar Faces in Presidential Battleground States

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Nathan L. Gonzales March 6, 2015 · 2:00 PM EST

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hasn’t officially announced her campaign and we’re still many months away from knowing who Republicans will pick to be their nominee, but the presidential battleground is already coming into focus. The next commander in chief is likely to be decided by voters in…

Rand Paul, Hillary Clinton Face Foreign Policy Challenges in 2016

Stuart Rothenberg March 2, 2015 · 8:45 AM EST

While the economy is a decisive topic in many presidential elections, national security looks increasingly likely to become a top issue in next year’s contest. And if that happens, it could dramatically affect both the direction of the race for the Republican nomination and the party’s prospects in November.

Remembrance of Shutdowns Past

Stuart Rothenberg February 27, 2015 · 9:00 AM EST

Republicans scored big gains in the 2010 and 2014 elections because both of those midterms were about President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. Democrats had successful elections in 2006, 2008 and 2012 primarily because they made those elections about the GOP and George W. Bush, John McCain and…

Is Ben Carson Really a Viable Presidential Candidate?

Stuart Rothenberg February 11, 2015 · 10:11 AM EST

Just because something has not happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen in the future.

Barack Obama and Barry Goldwater proved that point, and Hillary Rodham Clinton could soon be added to the list. Could Ben Carson, as well?

There has been plenty of chatter about Carson and his…