President News & Analysis

Ryan Rides to the Rescue — But Not Until 2020

Stuart Rothenberg May 4, 2016 · 3:30 PM EDT

I recently asked a veteran Republican strategist how his party picks up the pieces after what now looks to be a very difficult 2016 election. His answer was quick and decisive: Paul Ryan.

If November’s elections are as messy for the GOP as they now appear, with Republicans failing…

GOP’s Troubles Just Beginning

Stuart Rothenberg April 29, 2016 · 10:28 AM EDT

Both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have glaring weaknesses as presidential nominees, but that’s only the beginning of the GOP's problems. Just as important, the current mix of top issues is simply terrible for Republicans in general and conservatives in particular.

The country moved noticeably to the right starting…

How Many Might Defect from Trump or Cruz?

Stuart Rothenberg April 22, 2016 · 8:30 AM EDT

There has been plenty of talk from the two leading Republican presidential contenders about how they will attract voters who didn’t embrace recent GOP nominees.

For Ted Cruz, his pool of new voters supposedly includes conservatives who didn’t bother to vote because they saw few differences between the parties.…

Democrats Are Headed off Their Own Cliff

Stuart Rothenberg April 15, 2016 · 8:45 AM EDT

Political observers – yes, including myself – have argued for years that the Republican Party has moved too far right, allowing its most ideological elements to limit its legislative options, prevent it from addressing national problems, and damage its appeal to key swing and emerging voter groups.

But instead…

The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump

Stuart Rothenberg April 7, 2016 · 9:10 AM EDT

For months, Donald Trump has led in polls, eventually piling up enough delegates to become a serious threat to win the Republican nomination in Cleveland in July. But now it appears that the wealthy businessman and reality television star’s candidacy is in jeopardy, the result of months of crude…

Maybe It Really Is the Media’s Fault

Stuart Rothenberg April 5, 2016 · 9:22 AM EDT

Reporters like to snicker when members of the public — or even better, folks in the political class — blame the media for an unexpected development or unwelcome outcome. Don’t blame us, they respond, acting as if they are mere observers who have little or no responsibility for the…

A Party Divided Is a Party Defeated—Usually

Stuart Rothenberg March 30, 2016 · 9:00 AM EDT

The question is no longer whether the GOP will be torn apart by the 2016 nominating process but how badly hurt its presidential nominee will be and whether defeat in November will be inevitable.

The answer depends on the nominee and on the ultimate extent of the divide. But…

The Dust Clears: Hillary vs. Trump or Cruz

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Stuart Rothenberg March 25, 2016 · 10:59 AM EDT

The most bizarre presidential race in the history of the universe is starting to gel.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead looks solid enough, and she appears to be pivoting to the general election. Bernie Sanders will win more delegates and carry more states, but Clinton’s margin,…

John Kasich’s Utterly Strange, Bizarre Campaign

Stuart Rothenberg March 24, 2016 · 9:10 AM EDT

If you like John Kasich, it's time to celebrate! The Ohio governor finally won a primary – his home state’s. Of course, he flopped in last week's other contests, ending the evening with almost two dozen fewer delegates than Sen. Marco Rubio, who exited the GOP race.

Kasich’s campaign…

Trump’s Electoral Math Doesn’t Add Up

Stuart Rothenberg March 16, 2016 · 10:26 AM EDT

Republican front-runner Donald Trump is asked repeatedly about polls showing him trailing Hillary Clinton badly in the general election. He always says the same thing: other polls show him winning, and Clinton will be very easy to defeat.

Is Trump merely blowing smoke, or could he re-draw the partisan…