President News & Analysis

The Politics of Identity Politics

Stuart Rothenberg July 24, 2015 · 9:00 AM EDT

“I’m tired of hyphenated Americans,” complains Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal in “We’re All Americans,” a television spot aired by Believe Again, the super PAC supporting the presidential hopeful’s bid.

“We’re not Indian-Americans or African-Americans or Asian-Americans. We’re all Americans,” he continues as the audience applauds.

Jindal thinks the way…

Who Will Benefit From the Issues Mix in 2016?

Stuart Rothenberg July 17, 2015 · 8:55 AM EDT

Every election is different, but they almost always come down to one question: What is the election about?

Some elections are about one or both of the candidates (personality, preparedness or accomplishments), while others are merely about “change.” Some are about the economy in general, or jobs or inflation…

Bernie Sanders: The Latest Version of Howard Dean

Stuart Rothenberg July 10, 2015 · 9:00 AM EDT

Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders’ poll numbers in New Hampshire have reporters taking notice and progressive Democrats excited: Bernie is surging!

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, if you believe the 73-year-old Vermont independent-turned-Democratic presidential hopeful.

“We are going to win New Hampshire. We’re going to win Iowa,…

The Donald Trump Impact: Not so Inevitable After All

Stuart Rothenberg July 8, 2015 · 8:45 AM EDT

I was surprised by the near unanimity over the weekend about the impact of the Donald Trump comments about Mexican immigrants. Almost every disinterested political observer agreed Trump’s typically over-the-top remarks were certain to hurt GOP prospects in the 2016 presidential election.

I am skeptical about that.

Once again,…

When the Second Time Isn’t the Charm

Stuart Rothenberg July 2, 2015 · 8:30 AM EDT

I feel bad for Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry. They are presidential retreads at a moment when anything that is more than an hour or two old is passé.

John McCain was a retread in 2008 (having lost a bid for the GOP nomination in 2000), as…

Does Scott Walker Have What It Takes to Win in 2016?

Stuart Rothenberg June 26, 2015 · 10:37 AM EDT

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is widely viewed as a top-tier hopeful for the GOP presidential nomination. But it’s less clear he has the right profile to knock off the likely Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Walker’s strength in the nomination race comes from his positioning…

The Iowa Straw Poll: Put a Stake Through Its Heart

Stuart Rothenberg June 22, 2015 · 9:30 AM EDT

The Iowa Straw Poll is dead for 2015. Let’s hope it doesn’t resurrect its ugly head for the 2020 cycle and beyond.

Almost four years ago I wrote a column, “The Nothingness of the Iowa Straw Poll,” in which I disclosed that I had canceled my trip to…

Can Marco Rubio Save the GOP in 2016?

Stuart Rothenberg June 16, 2015 · 1:15 PM EDT

The Republican presidential field looks unusually diverse this cycle — an African-American (Ben Carson), an Indian-American (Bobby Jindal), a woman (Carly Fiorina) and a Hispanic, or, if you prefer, a Cuban (Marco Rubio). One candidate is married to a Hispanic originally from Mexico (Jeb Bush).

There is even a…

Party’s History of Establishment Picks Could Be Over

Stuart Rothenberg June 8, 2015 · 1:37 PM EDT

Battles for the Republican presidential nomination almost always come down to two alternatives — an establishment-backed candidate with pragmatic instincts and an insurgent (often significantly more conservative) who tries to appeal to constituencies that feel ignored.

And except for 1964, when an insurgent Barry Goldwater defeated a slew of…

How to Fix an Unfair Presidential Debate System

Stuart Rothenberg May 28, 2015 · 11:35 AM EDT

Fox News and CNN, which will broadcast the first two GOP presidential debates, have decided on a system for excluding candidates that could result in Donald Trump participating in those debates but current or former senators and governors being excluded.

Nice going, guys.

I certainly agree having a debate…