President News & Analysis

Early Iowa Presidential Polls a Better Predictor Than National Ones

Stuart Rothenberg October 8, 2015 · 11:18 AM EDT

Last month, national polls by CNN/ORC, Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal got plenty of attention, and they certainly helped readers and viewers understand what is going on in the Republican and Democratic presidential contests.

But if history is any guide, early national polls are far less valuable…

Draft Biden Organizer Dismissed Over Past Legal Problems

Nathan L. Gonzales October 7, 2015 · 10:54 AM EDT

Draft Biden PAC is gaining steam and staff in its unaffiliated effort to encourage Vice President Joe Biden to get into the presidential race, but it recently dismissed one of the group’s initial organizers after his past legal problems came to light.

Former congressional aide and campaign consultant Carlos…

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Ohio

Nathan L. Gonzales October 1, 2015 · 3:59 PM EDT

Nearly a dozen years ago, Meet the Press moderator Tim Russert talked about “Ohio, Ohio, Ohio,” pointing to the importance of the Buckeye State in the 2004 presidential election. 

That race proved that Ohio can be an elusive target. Democrats believed the state was going to put John Kerry…

Report Shorts (October 1, 2015)

October 1, 2015 · 3:57 PM EDT

Arizona’s 2nd District. Democrats are targeting GOP Rep. Martha McSally after she knocked off Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in a close race last year. Republicans recently released a handful of automated polls which showed McSally and some of her vulnerable colleagues start the general election in decent shape for…

Does Voter Anger Explain the Success of Presidential Outsiders?

Stuart Rothenberg September 29, 2015 · 10:58 AM EDT

Those of us who report on and analyze politics for a living have been talking ad nauseam about voters’ frustration and anger.

It’s the hot topic that presumably explains Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Bernard Sanders, as well as the problems that political veterans such as Hillary Rodham Clinton…

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Florida

Nathan L. Gonzales September 18, 2015 · 2:59 PM EDT

Democrats may still have nightmares about recounts, hanging chads, and Florida, but the Sunshine State should be firmly lodged on any list of presidential swing states. Intelligent people can debate whether Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia are pure toss-ups, but the presidential nominees seem pre-destined to compete for Florida’s…

Report Shorts (September 18, 2015)

September 18, 2015 · 2:58 PM EDT

Arkansas Senate. Former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge announced his challenge to Sen. John Boozman. “Washington is broken,” the 37-year-old Democrat said in a boilerplate release. “I’m running for the Senate because I’m committed to doing everything I can to fix it for Arkansas and for our country.” 

“I would…

Post-CNN Debate Thoughts

Stuart Rothenberg September 18, 2015 · 10:12 AM EDT

Given there are still four and one-half months until the Iowa caucuses, why would any Iowa Republican make a final decision right now about which candidate he or she will support?

Yet that didn’t stop CNN from treating Wednesday night’s GOP debate at the Reagan Library as the Super…

And the News Gets Worse for Clinton

Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2015 · 10:08 AM EDT

Compared to the Republican race for president, the Democratic contest looks almost normal.

Yes, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s poll numbers have plummeted so far and so fast that she trails an avowed socialist in Iowa and New Hampshire polls, and she looks so damaged that Vice President Joseph R. Biden…

A Significant Reassessment of the GOP Race

Stuart Rothenberg September 10, 2015 · 12:48 PM EDT

Republican front-runner Donald Trump isn’t going away anytime soon, I now believe.

That assessment doesn’t mean I think Trump is the favorite for the Iowa caucuses or the GOP nomination, but it does reflect a fundamental shift in my thinking. I have believed and been arguing that once Iowa…