President News & Analysis

Cruz and Kasich Implausible Scenarios Keeping Trump on Top

by Stuart Rothenberg March 1, 2016 · 9:52 AM EST

The early primaries usually winnow presidential fields because each one tests aspects of a candidacy, and because only victories keep the money flowing.

But while this Republican field has winnowed, it hasn’t shrunk as much as some would like. Part of the answer involves the existence of super PAC…

Trump Is More Vulnerable Than You Think

by Stuart Rothenberg February 23, 2016 · 11:51 AM EST

Most in the national news media are talking about how Donald Trump is now the clear Republican frontrunner and will be nearly impossible to stop. They are only partially right.

Trump, who won South Carolina (and all of its delegates) with a little under one-third of the vote, certainly…

Obama Learns What You Sow in the Senate, You Reap in the White House

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 22, 2016 · 3:02 PM EST

If elected president, Republican Sens. Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio probably won’t keep much more more than the doorknobs from the current White House. But they could take away one valuable lesson from President Barack Obama: What you sow in the Senate, you’ll reap in the Oval Office.

Obama…

Don’t Call it a Push Poll: Bernie Sanders Campaign Edition

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 22, 2016 · 8:45 AM EST

Arguing about the term “push poll” is a biennial tradition and, thanks to the Bernie Sanders campaign, we get to do it once again.

On Thursday, ABC News wrote about a recent poll conducted in Nevada by a group that favors former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The headline,…

Money Can’t Buy Love in GOP Presidential Primary

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 19, 2016 · 2:59 PM EST

All candidates says they’re in it until the bitter end, right up until the point when they drop out. That’s often because the presidential race requires money and money often requires winning. 
That’s one of the challenges of Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s campaign. His second place finish in New…

Who Will Win South Carolina Saturday? Just Look at the Voters

by Stuart Rothenberg February 19, 2016 · 12:26 PM EST

What will South Carolina Republican presidential primary voters do when they go to the polls on Saturday? The best way to approach that question is to compare the Palmetto State’s GOP primary voters to those who turned out this month for the first two Republican contests.

By most measures,…

Michael Bloomberg’s Road Map to the White House

by Stuart Rothenberg February 17, 2016 · 11:31 AM EST

You are the eighth-richest person in America with a net worth of more than $38 billion, according to Forbes magazine. You served three terms as mayor of New York. You’ve been a Democrat, a Republican and an independent. And you believe that the country has suffered from political…

Trying to Make Sense of the Post-New Hampshire Republican Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 10, 2016 · 2:20 PM EST

If there were any doubts that Donald Trump was a serious contender in the Republican presidential race after he arguably under-performed in Iowa, New Hampshire’s results should be a wake-up call.

While one victory in the Granite State certainly doesn’t guarantee Trump the nomination, his significant margin (nearly 20…

Voters Don’t Fit Neatly Into Presidential Primary Lanes

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 9, 2016 · 4:59 PM EST

The common narrative of the Republican presidential primary has two groups of candidates jockeying for position in establishment and anti-establishment lanes.

Under these parameters, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would stand to be the primary, if not sole, beneficiary from Donald Trump’s departure, whether it be from losses or boredom.…

Can Rubio Follow Romney’s Path to the Nomination?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 9, 2016 · 12:30 PM EST

Is Marco Rubio a conservative who wants to overthrow the GOP establishment or a potential standard-bearer for party pragmatists?  He’s trying to be both, of course.

That strategy has been tried before – by Mitt Romney. And it worked, sort of. The question now, after Rubio’s debate performance on…